Severe Weather Forecast
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF S TX... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE OVER THE ERN SD VICINITY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...AS IT -- AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS -- SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. EWD PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AIDED BY AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE PAC NW...AND A VERY WEAK LOW SHOULD LINGER ACROSS FL. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY INVOF SWRN MN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...REACHING THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT DRAPED INITIALLY FROM MN/IA SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME...WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO REGION. THE SRN FRINGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD LINGER ACROSS TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE WASHING OUT COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT. ...THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX... SCATTERED/ONGOING CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE RISK AREA TO START THE PERIOD...CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST LOCALLY WITH THE ONGOING STORMS...BUT THE GREATER EFFECT OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE TO HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA -- PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF AR NEWD. WHILE SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DIURNAL PEAK HEATING PERIOD...THE LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. FARTHER SW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO CENTRAL TX/THE HILL COUNTRY AREA...STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED. WITH 40 TO 50 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS TX AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...STRENGTHENING SHEAR WILL ALLOW DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN/ACQUIRE ROTATION. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...ONLY ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED -- MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AS SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OCCURS. INSTEAD...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE VERY LARGE HAIL...WHILE WIND THREAT INCREASES WITH TIME AS STORMS LIKELY CONGEAL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR NWWD AS WI -- JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE LOW-TOPPED STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE...AND AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHERE A BAND OF LATE AFTERNOON STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR.
